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The final revenue derived in Table 3 was largely based on the assumptions made. Values might vary in reality. In later section, we addressed all parameters separately to examine their impact to Douyin’s future revenue growth and valuation. 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% 3.73 4.29 4.76 5.73 4.85 5.24 5.54 6.52 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Figure 6: Social media advertising cost-per-mille (CPM) worldwide from Q1 2017 to Q4 2018 [USD]18 4.1.1 Revenue Projection We studied both the general market trend and company/app-specific variables to access the potential growth of Douyin’s ad revenue in the future. Macro market trend – short-video industry On one hand, looking at the entire short video industry as a whole – despite the market is in general growing in size, we see trend of decreasing proportion of revenue from the advertisements. 18 Source: Statista - 34 - CPM [$] QoQ Grwoth [%]PDF Image | Analysis of ByteDance with a close look on Douyin TikTok
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