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The latest user data available on Douyin is of January 2019. As discussed, we think that its user growth is entering the phase of stagnation. Thus we assume that the MAU in future would grow at a rate that is 0.1% lower than the rate of last month – MAU growth rate of March 2019 is set to be 1.9% while MAU of February grew 2.0% compared to January. With this trend, its growth rate would be flat at 0% on September 2020. From there, the user growth would stop, if not decrease. We assume the user stickiness of Douyin would stay constant 50% in perpetuity. With projected DAU and assumed static DAU/MAU, DAU growth is also projected. 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Figure 15: Projected growth of MAU and DAU of Douyin, in millions27 Note: solid line represents actual data collected and reported by a third-party data provider, QuestMobile, whereas dashed line represents future MAU projected under our assumption that the growth rate of MAU would gradually decline to 0% We then calculated the average MAU and DAU for Douyin from January 2019 to December 2020, where the growth became flat. The values sported 505 million and 243 million, respectively. Thus for revenue projection, we consider average DAU to be fluctuating between 200 and 300 million. 27 Source: QuestMobile - 43 - MAU [mn]PDF Image | Analysis of ByteDance with a close look on Douyin TikTok
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