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[mn, $] [mn, $] [mn] [mn] /MAU [$] MAU DAU Sales revenue Market capitaliza- tion Monthly active users Daily active users User stickiness Average revenue per user Sales multiple Market cap-to- MAU ratio Market cap-to- DAU ratio A B C D D/C E B/A B/C B/D Facebook Momo Weibo iQIYI 55,838 1,950 1,719 3,635 429,300 2,320 7,540 113 14,990 462 19,640 454 1,523 66% n/a n/a 200 43% 135 30% 24.96 7.7 185.0 281.9 18.88 3.9 66.5 n/a 4.00 8.7 32.4 75.0 8.00 5.4 43.2 145.1 Douyin 2,700 n/a 426 207 49% 9.2833 n/a n/a n/a ByteDance 7,000 75,000 598 250 42% 20.06 10.7 125.4 300.0 From Table 8, we can see Douyin contributes to approximately 40% of ByteDance’s annual sales revenue. ByteDance’s sales multiple, being 10.7, is higher than all four comparable companies. However, if we look more closely on user-related metrics, we can see that it has a fairly high ARPU. If we compare it with the other companies, we can see that Douyin’s ARPU is significantly higher than Weibo and iQIYI, the comparable companies in China that shares similar level of MAU with Douyin, and closely follow Facebook. However, Facebook has a much higher user stickiness, MAU and sales revenue. Due to its global presence, its ARPU can be viewed separately when segmenting by geography – in 2018, its annual ARPU sported 111.97 USD in US and Canada but only 10.71 USD in Asia Pacific (Facebook Inc., 2019). As Douyin operates mainly in China and other Asian countries such as India, Japan, and Indonesia – we would conclude that it is only fair to compare its ARPU to Facebook’s Asian segment. Given that Douyin’s current ARPU is above-mean and higher than the comparables, we think that it is highly likely to decrease in the future. We then estimated the value of Douyin and ByteDance based on different multiples of the four companies – results are summarized and shown in Table 9 below. Table 9: Estimated value of Douyin and ByteDance based on different multiples of the four companies Facebook 20,758 78,828 58,349 53,818 110,656 70,469 the impact of the reports on share value. Source: Weibo Corp., iQIYI Inc., Momo Inc., Facebook Inc., 2018 Annual Report, Yahoo Finance, YCharts, ByteDance 33 Douyin’s ARPU was obtained by dividing its annual revenue by its yearly average MAU in 2018. Comparable Douyin ByteDance P/S MC/MAU MC/DAU P/S MC/MAU MC/DAU - 58 -PDF Image | Analysis of ByteDance with a close look on Douyin TikTok
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