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Forum Scientiae Oeconomia Volume 4 (2016) No. 1 other, consciously thinking players. While in the traditional version, the winner is the one who is most successful in guessing the randomly selected (either mechanically or by hand) numbers, in the modified game the winner is the person “whose numbers least resemble those of the other players” (Mérő 2007: 287)1. The administration of the game is as follows: When all the participants have chosen their numbers, the lottery tickets and the choices are evaluated. In the case of each single number (1 to 49), we determine the exact number of players who chose the given number. After this for each and every player we check, how many other participants had marked the numbers that he/she specif- ically had chosen. The winner is the one, whose overall sum is the smallest (i.e. whose numbers overall had the least number of other choosers). Mérő has shown that in the “hidden lottery” game random choice is the so-called “evolutionarily stable strategy”, as if it spreads amongst the players, no other strategy can be more effective. In short, the most rational solution is random choice. Based on the 236 person sample studied by Mérő, he indicated that the numbers chosen by the players (i.e. showing all the choices on a 7x7 ticket) really do indicate a more random frequency. At the same time – based on further research – it has become evident that the choices of the individual players are very rarely truly random. The choices for the major part correlate to some sort of logical thinking: avoiding the well-known lucky numbers (e.g. dates of birth) or those in outstanding positions (i.e. at the corners), or marking these precisely because others would think the same way. In short, while the majority of the individual choices were based more or less on some sort of logical rather than random choice, and were thus irrational from the point of view of evolutionary stable strategy, together with the results deduced from the common choices, they can be considered to be rational (Mérő 2007). In this paper we not only present the results of the experiments conducted and the conclusions, but also share propositions which require further future studies. After presenting the theoretical and practical aspects of the modified “Lottery Game” used, we briefly review the literature on lottery games and the players’ choices highlighting the results relevant to our study. Furthermore, we also present the methodology and the results of our study together with our conclusions and hypotheses. The paper ends with a summary of the proposed further research to be conducted. 1 It is important to know that in keeping with the structure of the different lottery games (such as the Hungarian lottery), the prize money for a given number of successfully chosen numbers is divided between all the winners who have achieved the same given number of hits. This means that the players are playing not only against luck, but also against all the other players, as well, i.e. in order to maxi- mize the prize money, their choice of numbers must not only coincide with those drawn, but at the same time these numbers must be ones that hopefully only they themselves will have marked from amongst all the players. 56PDF Image | PATTERNS IN THE LOTTERY GAME
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