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Patterns in the Lottery Game 1. Theoretical background – strategies of choice: random vs. conscious choice People have always been interested in random events. Our forefathers con- sidered coincidence to be more or less destiny, while later on the term also became connected to games of fortune (e.g. dice games). Naturally men have always tried and continue to try to unravel and explain the nature of random events. Random events occur in an anomalous way without method or con- scious choice (Oxford Dictionaries 2015). At the same time, further to the in- dividual, random, and unforeseeable events we can also describe the random outcome of repeatedly conducted studies. As a result – based on an appropriate- ly large number of trials – we must study the frequency of the various random outcomes (e.g. the random heads or tails result of flipping a coin), based on which the “probability” of the possible outcomes can be determined (as Ber- noulli recognized in the “law of large numbers”). In keeping with the above, randomness can be interpreted as the index of uncertainty, and as such, also as its probability. The concept of uncertainty (and together with this, that of probability and risk) is closely related to games of chance. It is sufficient to refer to the “prob- lem of points” game, which first appeared in 14942 and in the case of which the solution for the fair distribution of the bets was elaborated in Pascal and Fer- mat’s correspondence (1654), thus laying down the basis of the modern mathe- matical theory of probability. Lottery, like all games of chance, relies on randomness. In this oldest and most widespread game all numbers have an equal chance to be drawn, all have an equal chance to be winners. It is the players’ aim to choose as many as pos- sible of the winning numbers to win the largest possible prize, which, in case of a full hit, can even be a fortune. As a result, consciously or not, the players apply different strategies of choice from random marking to what appears to be a logical choice. People usually find it hard or impossible to interpret randomness and together with this the probability of the occurrence of certain events. They use heuristics to make understanding easier, which in effect simplify and speed up decision making, but which, as has been proven, lead to decision traps (Tversky and Kahnemann 1974). A number of papers on the choice of lottery numbers deal with the study and description of the phenomena of “gambler’s fallacy” and “hot hand fallacy” which belong to the heuristics of representativeness (Clotfelter and Cook 1991, 1993; Terrel 1994; Papachris- tou 2004; Jorgensen et al. 2011). In the case of “gambler’s fallacy” people believe that the probability of a random event is affected by the outcome of 2 The game was first described in Lucas Pacioli: Summa de arithmetica, geometrica, proportioni et proportionalità. 57PDF Image | PATTERNS IN THE LOTTERY GAME
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