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Director General, Yours faithfully, PETER A. DAVIS, National Lottery, PO Box 4465, London SW1Y 5XL. November 25. 18 The Times, 29 November 1994, letter to the editor. No need to fear a lottery shortfall From the Director General of the National Lottery Sir, Mr George Coggan (letter, November 24) raises concerns about the National Lottery Prize Fund's ability to pay winners when ''popular'' numbers are selected in the weekly draw. We are aware that players do not choose numbers randomly but use birthdays, sequences or other lucky numbers. This causes the number of winners to deviate each week from the number predicted by statistical theory. Experience from other lotteries shows that the number of winners of the lower prizes can vary by up to 30 per cent from the theoretical expectation. In the first National Lottery game there were many more Pounds 10 prize-winners than theory predicted. It is just as likely that future draws will produce fewer than expected winners and, because each higher prize pool is shared between the winners, prize values will rise accordingly. Mr Coggan suggests a pessimistic scenario in which the cost of paying the fixed Pounds 10 prizes to those who choose three correct numbers exceeds the prize fund. Best advice, and observations from other lotteries around the world, is that, even after allowing for the concentration on ''popular'' numbers, the chances of this happening are extremely remote. Your readers will be reassured to know, however, that I have not relied totally upon statistics or evidence from other lotteries. Camelot's license to operate the National Lottery also requires them to provide substantial additional funds by way of deposit in trust and by guarantee to protect the interests of the prize-winners in unexpected circumstances. Of course, it is interesting to look at this problem for the Powerball lottery. We noted that, in our sample of 17,000 numbers where players picked their own numbers, there were particular sets of five numbers for the white balls that were chosen as many as 10 times. For example the set of numbers 01-11-21-31-41 obtained by going down a diagonal startingPDF Image | USING LOTTERIES IN TEACHING A CHANCE COURSE
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