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Abstract In 2018, ByteDance, a young Internet company with only 6 years of history, broke out on various news headlines as the highest valued unicorn. With the acquisitions of musical.ly and Flipgram, the company’s flagship product Douyin strikes to develop its global presence under the name TikTok. This thesis analyzed Douyin’s historical growth and revenue model. As a main revenue driver, future user growth is predicted and calibrated by extending the methodology proposed in earlier studies by Cauwels and Sornette. We considered three growth scenarios – base, high and extreme, and estimated Douyin as well as ByteDance’s value based on comparable company analysis. ByteDance’s key performance metrics and multiples were compared with four other firms in the similar industry, Facebook, Weibo, Momo and iQIYI. The study found out that in order to support the company’s current valuation, Douyin needs to keep its user growth at a pace similar to the extreme growth scenario. However, it appears that with its current MAU reaching the maximum carrying capacity suggested in the high growth scenario, its future user growth rate is likely to slow down or even stop in the following years. With other products of the company growing at their current pace, ByteDance’s current valuation of 75 billion USD is considered to be too high. Keywords: mobile internet, short video industry, in-feed ads, logistic function, comparable company analysis -3-PDF Image | Analysis of ByteDance with a close look on Douyin TikTok
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