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Substituting equation (3.6) into equation (3.4), we get: 𝑃(𝑡) = 𝐾+𝑃 (𝑒𝑟𝑡 −1) 0 0 𝑟𝑡 𝐾𝑃 𝑒 (3.13) Once both values of r and K are known as well, the remaining unknown parameter, initial user population, P0 can be derived by rearranging equation (3.13) for the specific time point i. Detailed explanations can be found in the original study by Cauwels and Sornette. Equation (3.13) would be used later in this thesis to predict Douyin’s user growth. 3.2 Comparable Company Analysis (CCA) A comparable company analysis (CCA) is an often used method in relative valuation under market approach that estimates the value of the target company based on a comparison its financial metrics, usually in forms of value-to-earnings multiples, with those of other similar listed companies (Capital City Training & Consulting, 2011; Godek, McCann, Simundza, & Taveras, 2011). The comparable companies are often publicly traded companies, and they usually share similar value drivers and operate in the similar industry as the target company that is being analyzed (Meitner, 2006). The steps of CCA consists of: 1. Finding comparable companies with similar business models or financial profiles that operate in the same or very similar industry 2. Collectingtheoperationalandfinancialdataofcomparablecompanies–easierwithpublicly traded listed companies for their readily available data 3. Evaluating performance metrics and multiples of comparable companies 4. Analyzing the target company using the multiples of its peers 5. Validating the analysis with strengths and shortcomings - 21 -PDF Image | Analysis of ByteDance with a close look on Douyin TikTok
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