Analysis of ByteDance with a close look on Douyin TikTok

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Analysis of ByteDance with a close look on Douyin TikTok ( analysis-bytedance-with-close-look-douyin-tiktok )

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3.1.2 Logistic Function The growth rate is then incorporated into a logistic function to predict future user growth. Logistic function is important in understanding and depicting the evolution of user growth. It provides a means for predicting future user growth of Internet companies. Prior research has shown that the growth of user base follows the natural growth law, an S-shaped logistic curve (Cauwels & Sornette, 2012). A standard logistic function is often written as: 𝑓(𝑥)=1+𝑒 𝐿 −𝑘∗(𝑥−𝑥0) Replacing the parameters with user-growth specific ones, we get: 𝑃(𝑡) = 1 + 𝑒 𝐾 −𝑟∗(𝑡−𝑡0) (3.9) (3.10) Where t represents different time periods, P(t) represents the user amount over time, r refers to the initial growth rate, and K refers to the maximum carrying capacity. Therefore, setting t=0, we get: 𝑃(0)=𝑃 = 𝐾 0 1 + 𝑒−𝑟∗(𝑡−𝑡0) By rearranging the terms in the equation, we get: 𝑒𝑟𝑡 =𝐾−1 0 𝑃 = 𝐾 1 + 𝑒𝑟𝑡0 (3.11) (3.12) 0 - 20 -

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