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Table 6: Estimated sales revenue of Douyin based on different growth scenarios Scenario DAU Base case 210 High growth 250 Extreme growth 300 Daily usage per user Estimated Revenue [mn, CNY] 27,422 32,428 38,685 In our analysis of Douyin’s in-feed ad revenue, we estimated the average daily usage per user to be 60 minutes. We made the assumption based on the third-party statistic that claims the daily usage per user averaged 52 minutes. However, this number varies among different data providers. As shown in Figure 20, daily usage of short video apps per user in China averaged around 32 minutes in the past four quarters (Q4 2017 – Q3 2018), according to iResearch. Assuming all usage of the short video apps originated from Douyin, this is still a vast different number with what was reported on Business of Apps – 52 minutes. Note that there exist also numerous competitors in the market, such as Kuaishou, Miaopai, and Weishi – these apps also contribute to the aggregated usage recorded. 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Q1 2017 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 21.1 24.8 31.7 32.7 30.3 33.1 33.2 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Figure 20: Daily usage of short video apps per user in China, from Q1 2017 to Q4 201828 28 Source: mUserTracker, iResearch; https://36kr.com/p/5168652 - 48 - Daily Usage per User [min] QoQ Growth [%]PDF Image | Analysis of ByteDance with a close look on Douyin TikTok
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