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PATTERNS IN THE LOTTERY GAME

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PATTERNS IN THE LOTTERY GAME ( patterns-inlottery-game )

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Patterns in the Lottery Game hanne (2007) – the French, Walker et al. (1998) and Ayton et al. (2015) – the British, Potter van Loon et al. (2015) – the Dutch lottery) that players like to choose “lucky numbers”, such as dates of birth, favorite numbers (e.g. 3, 7 or their multiples), zip codes or prime numbers. Players are also inclined to mark numbers that they can easily remember, such as the date the lottery ticket was filled in, the draw date or the lottery ticket’s number (Potter van Loon et al. 2015). Geometric patterns often play a role in the applied strategies of choice. It is possible to note that the numbers located in the middle of the lottery ticket are usually preferred, while those on the edge or close to each other are avoided (i.e. “edge aversion” and “proximity aversion”, respectively). In their choices, the players tend to choose symmetric and “aesthetic” forms and patterns, often looking at the whole range of available numbers (i.e. based on a misperception of “chance”, in the 6/45 game the six numbers are usually strewn across the 1 to 45 range, rather than marking ones closer to each other, or ones located in the lower, middle, or upper part of the ticket) (Potter van Loon et al. 2015; Ayton et al. 2015). 2. Hidden lottery game: a case study “Decision Making Skills” is a compulsory elective course for students in the master programs of Corvinus Business School, Corvinus University of Buda- pest. Each semester 150 to 200 students with a sound knowledge in business and economic foundation subjects take the course. In the frame of the seminars, when covering the material on the psychology of decision making, students are usually asked whether they play the lottery. Naturally, everyone knows the game. They know the various types of lotteries available in Hungary and their respective rules: the most popular lotteries are the 5/90 (marking 5 numbers out of a possible 90) and the 6/45 one (marking 6 numbers out of a possible 45). They all know that in order to win in these games, the player must have as many hits as possible (in the case of the 5/90 min. 2 hits, in the case of the 6/45 min. 3) of the numbers drawn. The draw can take place electronically with a machine or by hand, randomly choosing from all the possible numbers. As to the question on whether or not they play the lottery, the students – mostly with self-satisfied smiles and relaxed that they will not walk into a “trap” set by the professor – all reply: “of course not”. No, playing the lottery makes no sense, they think, seeing the excellent business and economics students that they are, i.e. practically “homo economicus”. To support their view, they take into consideration all the possible outcomes (benefits), the related probabilities and simply calculate the profit to be expected from the game. When taking a decision, they compare the expected profit with the cost incurred (the price of the lottery ticket) and conclude (unless the expected prize is enormous) that in general it is not worthwhile, thus, they do not play. 59

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