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Forum Scientiae Oeconomia Volume 4 (2016) No. 1 This reply is comforting on the one hand, but is, on the other hand, also thought provoking. What is fascinating is that – knowing that games of chance (lottery, gambling, etc.) provide a significant income countries’ budgets, and that hundreds of thousands await the draw with the lottery tickets in their hand – of the close to 500 students interviewed to date is it really true that not one of them is enticed to forget the formal, rational way of thinking in hope of a prize whether it be small or large? At the same time it is nice to see that the university students apply the basic theories of economics so well and avoid the heuristic traps related to estimations and feelings of probability. It appears that they see the advertisements related to lottery promising easily acquired wealth, the news on lottery millionaires, and are aware of the role of chance and the notion of probability. They do not take part in a game where they have to play against the laws of nature (fate), against an “opponent”, whose “steps” and laws are known and can be described, but who is at the same time unpredictable and where the prize (profit) to be expected is smaller than the actual investment (the price of the lottery ticket). We accepted the students’ decision, i.e. not to participate in a traditional lottery game, however, we asked them to play a lottery, albeit a modified one – a “hidden” lottery game – with us. Our aim was twofold: first that at least once in their life they fill in a lottery ticket, and second to determine their logical thinking, their problem-solving abilities, their affinity to fortuitousness and probability by analyzing the decision making strategies – primarily those of the winners – and the reasons behind them through the modified lottery game. 3. Methodology The study was conducted with the Hungarian and foreign students partic- ipating in the Hungarian and English programs of the Corvinus University of Budapest. The students were all taking the “Decision Making Skills” master level subject at Corvinus Business School. Since 2010, twice a year (in the fall and spring semesters, respectively), we ask the students to fill in a “hidden lottery” ticket. No changes have been made to the strategic game elaborated by László Mérő, i.e. in contrast to the traditional lottery game where players must choose the randomly draw winning numbers and their prize depends on the number of choices that were successful4, in the “hidden lottery”, players are playing against consciously thinking competitors, where their success depends basical- ly on the choice and strategy of the other players. 4 In the case of some lottery games the prize also depends on how many players have the same number of hits, as the prize money designated for that many hits is divided between them. Based on this, play- ers are not merely playing a “game of chance”, but also to some extent a game of strategy, whose logic resembles that of the “hidden lottery” – they need to mark numbers that are drawn, but which were not marked by other players. 60PDF Image | PATTERNS IN THE LOTTERY GAME
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